Trump's Win

It is now been twelve books, nine jigsaw puzzles, and 4 ½ months since I first blogged about Covid.  The pandemic is worse than ever, no end in sight.  The election is less than 100 days away (maybe).  Here, friends and readers, is my prediction . . . the pandemic continues and so does Trump.

People are passionate about Trump.  You either love him or you hate him.  Joe Biden is as exciting as a glass of warm milk.  In the coming election, people will turn out to either vote for Trump or vote against Trump.  But how many will turn out, enthusiastic enough to risk their health, to vote for Biden?

Ruth Bader Ginsburg is not going to make it through another four years.  All the right-to-lifers, all the gun-rights advocates, and all the right-wing conservatives will vote Trump.  They don’t want to lose the opportunity to appoint more conservative federal judges and to get one more conservative judge onto the Supreme Court.

Law-and-order conservatives will vote Trump.  Right-wing nationalists will vote Trump.  The wealthy, seeking to protect their wealth from the left-wing progressives, will vote Trump.

Trump will do all he can to discourage mail-in ballots.  In contrast to Democrats, Republicans take the Covid epidemic far less seriously, observe less social distancing, wear masks less often, and are more willing to meet in large crowds.  This means that they will be more willing to come out in public, wait in lines, and vote on-site.  Advantage Trump.

The Democrats will inevitably shoot themselves in the foot.  The radical left-wing will do to the Democratic Party what the Tea Party did to the Republicans.  At a time when this country needs uniting, when we need politicians willing to work across aisles and to make compromises, ideology and polarization will prevail.

The media will contribute to Trump’s victory.  Moderation and compromise make for boring news and lower ratings.  The news media outlets, all of them, have a significant investment in Trump being President for four more years.  Love him or hate him, with Trump in office people watch the news.

Russia and China, to the extent that they will try to influence the election, know it is in their best interest to see Trump win.  No need for war or espionage.  They will be able to sit back and watch the U.S. implode.

Add it all up.  Trump wins.

(I hope I'm wrong.)