Blog Contents

1.      The Quest                                           (12/25/2018)

2.      On Dogma and Militancy                   (12/27/2018)

3.      The Thinker and the Doer                  (12/29/2018)

4.      Attitude                                               (12/31/2018)

5.      Humor                                                 (1/3/2019)

6.      Spanking                                             (1/6/2019)

7.      Parenting                                             (1/7/2019)

8.      A Childhood Song                              (1/8/2019)

9.      When I Was a Little Boy                    (1/10/2019)

10.  Gratitude                                             (1/12/2019)

11.  Pretty Good                                         (1/15/2019)

12.  Electronics and Education                  (1/17/2019)

13.  The Road Taken                                 (1/21/2019)

14.  Shakespeare and Me                           (1/24/2019)

15.  Horse and Rider                                  (1/28/2019)

16.  A Point of Light                                  (2/1/2019)

17.  The Electronic Medical Record          (2/3/2019)

18.  After Life?                                          (2/8/2019)

19.  Making America                                 (2/18/2019)

20.  Powers of Ten                                     (2/23/2019)

21.  Poker                                                   (2/28,2019)

22.  Mind Over Matter                               (3/6/2019)

23.  Sam the Fisherman                             (3/8/2019)

24.  Word Retrieval                                    (3/12/2019)

25.  Killing Time                                        (3/15/2019)

26.  Winter’s End                                       (3/19/2019)

27.  Myths and Manners                            (3/29/2019)

28.  Precognition                                        (4/1/2019)

29.  Passover                                              (4/7/2019)

30.  Psychiatry and Religion                      (4/11/2019)

31.  Being Thirty                                        (4/15/2019)

32.  Connect Four                                       (4/23/2019)

33.  Letting Go                                           (4/27/2019)

34.  An Educational Challenge                  (5/3/2019)

35.  Medicine and Philosophy                    (5/12/2019)

36.  The Name of the Rose                         (5/18/2019)

37.  Nostalgia                                              (5/22/2019)

38.  Very Interesting                                   (6/7/2019)

39.  ADHD and Medication                       (6/13/2019)

40.  My Father                                            (6/15/2019)

41.  Chiggers                                              (6/20/2019)

42.  Becoming Adult                                  (6/23/2019)

43.  The Book of Job                                  (6/27/2019)

44.  The Answer to “Why?”                       (7/13/2019)

45.  Private Speech                                     (7/16/2019)

46.  Nature and Nurture                             (7/21/2019)

47.  Diagnosing Autism                             (7/26/2019)

48.  Ich und Du                                          (7/30/2019)

49.  Plausible Truth                                    (8/7/2019)

50.  Reading and Writing                           (8/11/2019)

51.  This is Pickleball                                 (8/19/2019)

52.  Limitations                                          (8/25/2019)

53.  Silence is Olden                                  (9/3/2019)

54.  Enablers                                              (9/9/2019)

55.  My Vacation                                        (9/28/2019)

56.  Prayer                                                  (9/30/2019)

57.  Fasting                                                 (10/6/2019)

58.  Middlemarch                                       (10/13/2019)

59.  Ecclesiastes                                         (10/13/2019)

60.  Memories                                            (10/19/2019)

61.  American History                                (10/22/2019)

62.  The Giving Tree                                   (11/3/2019)

63.  Discipline                                             (11/6/2019)

64.  November 22, 1963                             (11/20/2019)

65.  Challenged                                           (11/22/2019)

66.  Golden Rules                                       (12/7/2020)

67.  Brains                                                  (12/10/2019)

68.  Behavior Mod                                      (12/12/2019)

69.  Mind and Brain                                    (12/26/2019)

70.  How to Be                                            (1/4/2020)

71.  Contradiction                                        (1/13/2020)

72.  Fair-Weather Fan                                  (1/15/2020)

73.  Broken                                                  (1/25/2020)

74.  Selective Inattention                             (2/6/2020)

75.  Leaders                                                 (2/9/2020)

76.  Rush                                                     (2/12/2020)

77.  Covid-19                                              (3/18/2020)

78.  Because a Little Bug Went Ka-Choo   (3/21/2020)

79.  Existential Angst                                  (3/31/2020)

80.  Jigsaw                                                   (4/5/2020)

81.  Dreams                                                 (4/22/2020)

82.  Kafkaesque                                          (4/23/2020)

83.  It’s Fantastic                                         (4/28/2020)

84.  Stupidity                                               (7/13/2020)

85.  Touching Spirit Bear                            (7/22/2020)

86.  Mark Twain and the Jews                     (7/29/2020)

87.  Trump’s Win                                         (8/1/2020)

88.  God?                                                      (8/8/2020)

89.  My Top-10                                             (8/11/2020)

90.  Free Will                                                (8/16/2020)

91.  Gone Fishin’                                          (8/28/2020

92.  Darwin’s Theory                                    (9/5/2020)

93.  Dear Dr. Phil                                          (9/9/2020)

94.  Human Nature                                        (9/13/2020)

95.  Love Letters                                           (10/4/2020)

96.  Do-Overs                                                (10/13/2020)

97.  Darth                                                       (10/16/2020)

98.  Americans                                               (11/12/2020)

99.  Confirmation Bias                                   (11/17/2020)

100.                      The End                                      (11/18/2020)

Confirmation Bias

Justice Amy Coney-Barrett is clearly an accomplished, bright, and articulate juror.  I don’t happen to agree with her conservative interpretation of constitutional law.  However, partisan shenanigans aside, she was a worthy appointment to the Supreme Court.

During her confirmation hearing, she responded to the Senators' questions with sound legal theory and reasoning. But from a psychological perspective, her explanations were nonsense.  She was trying to sell the idea that Supreme Court cases are decided objectively, guided by philosophic principle, each case decided on its own merits.  Not so.

Human behavior is hard to predict.  But I believe that a Supreme Court justice’s vote can be predicted with at least 90% accuracy.  After all, no one is surprised when a ‘liberal’ judge votes liberally or when a ‘conservative’ judge votes conservatively.  However, when Chief Justice Roberts voted with the liberals on an Affordable Care Act case, some were pleasantly surprised, but others were shocked and dismayed.  The liberal judges weren’t criticized for voting liberally.  The conservative judges weren’t criticized for voting conservatively.  That’s what everyone expected. But when Judge Roberts did not vote with the conservatives, as predicted, he was roundly criticized.  His vote, in that case, was the exception that proves the rule.

If each court case was really decided objectively, only upon its own merits, then the outcome could never be so predictable.  Something else is going on.  That something else is, in psychological terms, called confirmation bias.

Psychologically, we often don’t base our beliefs upon facts, we find facts compatible with our beliefs. We often don't make decisions based upon facts, we find facts that support our decisions. Simultaneously, we deny, ignore, or dispute any contradictory facts. 

I assume that each of the Supreme Court justices are the best of the best jurists.  I assume that cases brought to the court are highly complex, often ambiguous, with many facts and precedents to consider, and with compelling arguments presented from both sides.

In complex court cases, being considered by the best of minds, each judge must review many facts, often contradictory facts. Then, if I am correct (and I am), they base their judicial opinions on the facts that best conform to their biases.  Conversely, they deny, ignore, or dispute any facts that may seem contradictory.  There is no such entity as a judge that is objective and without bias.  That’s just not human psychology. If you know where a Supreme Court judge is on the political spectrum, then you know how the Supreme Court judge will vote, at least 90% of the time.

Ironically, confirmation bias seems to have a double meaning. I didn’t need the recent Senate confirmation hearings to know how each of the Senators would vote.  Senators selected or ignored facts, as the facts did or did not conform to their biases, but facts never changed a single vote. The votes, for or against Judge Coney-Barrett’s confirmation, were preordained. The confirmation hearing was nonsense, a waste of time and energy.  I can confirm that, without bias.

Americans

"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it."  (George Santayana, 1863-1952)

“Un-American.”  That’s what a T.V. commentator called the 70-million Trump voters.  I disagree.  That would be like saying that the throngs of adoring Germans were ‘un-German’ as they stood shoulder to shoulder in pre-war Nuremberg square shouting “Seig Heil!” To the contrary, they were very German.  They stood there able to overlook the lies and rantings of a charismatic madman, because he promised to make Germany great again.  The German economy was improving. Inflation was contained. The trains ran on time.  The military was rebuilding. After the humiliating World War I surrender, Germany was once again emerging as a major power on the world stage.  The common man, the disaffected and forgotten German citizen, now felt a rising sense of power, purpose, and pride.

German history, German culture, and German literature would be cleansed, decontaminated from the influence of Jews, Socialists, and other undesirables.  Beautiful Aryan children would be taught a new and noble German narrative from an early age.  From Germany would rise a new generation of uber-menschen, supermen.

Socialism, with its global agenda, was the political enemy without and was effectively silenced by brown-shirted thugs. The only significant obstacle between the German people and true greatness on the world stage was the conspiracy of the plotting “international Jew.”

Fast forward to the pre-election MAGA rallies, the mini-Nurembergs, with adoring Trumpers, unmasked, standing shoulder-to-shoulder chanting “lock ‘em up’ or ‘fire Fauci’. Only the stiff-armed salute was missing. The 70-million who voted for Trump are not un-American.  They are very American, a new kind of right-wing conservative American as defined by Trump and endorsed by Hannity and Ingraham and Carlson, by Ted Cruz and Jim Jordan and Lindsey Graham, by Bill Barr and Mike Pompeo, by Mitch McConnell and Mike Pence.

These new Americans scare me.  They promote conspiracy theories, and ignore facts and science.  They rely heavily on insults, threats, and banners, but seem deaf to reason.  They value the Dow Jones, the second amendment, and their inalienable rights, but mock integrity, responsibility, and decency.

What is happening to my country?  Why did 70-milliion citizens vote for Trump?  Why do so many Republicans continue to openly support this sociopathic president, and his unsubstantiated claims of election fraud and conspiracy? Why have so many other Republicans in power been silent? 

Why, in the 1920’s and 30’s, did the arguably most cultured and enlightened of all European nations embrace the falsehoods and conspiracy theories of the lunatic Hitler?  Because he made the trains run on time?  Because he made Germany great again?  Far too many Germans enthusiastically supported Hitler.  Too many others remained silent, and we know the consequences.

American is not Germany, Donald Trump is not Hitler, and The Art of the Deal is not Mein Kampf. But human nature and mob psychology are the same, then and now. Trump is petty, vindictive, powerful, and dangerous.  He lost the election. And yet far too many Republicans, good Americans who know this to be true, remain silent. Do they not remember the past?